Vladimir Putin & Modi to Meet During Geopolitically Complex Times for Moscow and New Delhi

The last time Vladimir Putin visited India four years ago, the international order was markedly different. That short trip, limited by the pandemic, focused on discussions on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Months later, the full-scale invasion of its neighbor would transform the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his diplomatic travel.

Furthermore, that era came before a significant shift in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by contentious statements and the introduction of heavy trade tariffs.

"In this context, the importance of this diplomatic mission to meet Modi is profound, serving as a signal of enduring ties and a defiance of external pressure," experts emphasize.

A Critical Juncture for Two Major Powers

The summit occurs at a crucial time. President Putin arrives after rejecting recent diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, bolstered by claimed gains by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the primary importance of this engagement is its very occurrence," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to a form of normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the stakes are particularly elevated. The country faces a difficult geopolitical climate, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

The tightrope walk was underscored just before the visit, when European ambassadors published a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's peace efforts. This elicited a firm response from Indian officials, who labeled it an unacceptable diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership dates back to the Soviet period and remains firmly rooted, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary arms provider. This relationship was generally accepted by the West until a recent shift.

Over time, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, recently failed peace efforts, pressure increased, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its traditional posture of maintaining multiple options," explained a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has other choices and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from international politics, India's core motivation with Russia is geography. "China remains the primary security challenge to India, and for decades, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its adversary and its longtime partner.

This apprehension has also accelerated India's drive to diversify its defense procurement, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to a reduced portion in recent years.

"India will attempt to strike a balance: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to keep the partnership alive, but avoid overly reliant that a sudden cutoff would cripple its defenses," the analyst remarked.

Energy and Economic Ties

Enhanced economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. President Putin has recently emphasized plans to take cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The matter of energy imports is central. Although the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, new sanctions have slowed activity from the private sector. At the same time, India has agreed to increase imports of American oil and gas.

A Russian official admitted "hurdles" in economic cooperation but said it would proceed uninterrupted. The official downplayed the impact of sanctions, stating they would cause only "minor" and "brief" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to circumvent them.

Diplomatic Constraints

As talks proceed, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned primarily through India's standard call for dialogue and peace.

"Yes, Prime Minister Modi has access to all parties, India does not possess the necessary leverage to significantly influence the war," the analyst noted. "Beyond encouraging talks, its ability to effect change is constrained."

Ultimately, despite the visible friendship between the two leaders, the partnership is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," driven by national interest in a rapidly changing world.