Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The mean count of everyday homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official statistics. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have warned that murder numbers may not point to improved countrywide stability.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This data was delivered by the head of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen in these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily military efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than the US. However, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently steeper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main elements of the President's safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, security analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the uptick in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was also problematic because it may mask days when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of safety. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas remarked.